Eurozone inflation expectations edge up in September, ECB survey finds

• 2026-10-24
• Economy
• News Desk
• Source: European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.pr261023~a3d201c97c.en.html

Eurozone consumers' median inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 3.1% in September from 3.0% in August, while their perception of inflation over the past year increased to 3.6% from 3.5%, according to the European Central Bank's Consumer Expectations Survey published on [date]. The survey, conducted between 27 August and 28 September 2026, also showed that longer-term inflation expectations remained unchanged.

Key facts

How do households view inflation?

• Median inflation expectations for three years ahead held at 2.9% and for five years ahead at 2.5% in September, unchanged from August, the ECB survey found.
• Expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months rose to 1.1% from 1.0%, while expected nominal spending growth increased to 3.7% from 3.6%.
• Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, and the expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%.
• Consumers expected home prices to rise by 3.5% over the next 12 months, up from 3.4%, and mortgage interest rates in 12 months' time were seen at 4.9%, unchanged from July.
• The survey covers around 19,000 adults in 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland.

Uncertainty about inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased slightly and remained above the level seen before the start of the conflict in the Middle East, the ECB said. The survey also showed persistent differences across income groups: respondents in the bottom income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations than those in the top quintile. Younger respondents aged 18-34 reported lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older age groups (35-54 and 55-70). What about income and spending?

Consumers' expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1% in September from 1.0% in August. As in previous months, expectations were higher on average in the bottom income quintile (1.5%) than in the top quintile (1.2%). Perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months rose to 5.3% from 5.2%, while expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months increased to 3.7% from 3.6%. How do consumers see growth and jobs?

Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months decreased to -1.5% in September from -1.2% in August. Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead increased to 11.3% from 11.0%. Households in the bottom income quintile expected the highest unemployment rate 12 months ahead (13.6%), while those in the top income quintile expected the lowest rate (9.7%). Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate of 10.6%, suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook, the ECB said. What are the housing and credit signals?

Consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 3.5% over the next 12 months, higher than in August (3.4%). Expectations for home price growth remained higher on average in the lowest income quintile (4.0%) than in the highest income quintile (3.2%). Expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months' time remained unchanged from July at 4.9%. Households in the top income quintile expected the lowest mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead (4.4%), while those in the bottom quintile expected the highest rates (5.7%). The net percentage of households reporting tighter access to credit over the previous 12 months increased compared with August, as did the net percentage expecting tighter credit conditions over the next 12 months.

The ECB said the microdata underlying the aggregate results are available in the Data and methodological information section of its Consumer Expectations Survey web page. The survey results do not represent the views of the ECB's decision-making bodies or staff, it added. The next set of results, for October, is scheduled for release on 27 November 2026.

Source: European Central Bank